Denny Hamlin may have an advantage in the Nextel Open because he won the Budweiser Shootout. Credit: Autostock

With a smooth start, Hamlin will win Open

Rookie driver's credentials in sprints are why he's one to watch

After much thought, consideration and consultation of tea leaves and massive amounts of barbecue, Denny Hamlin will win the Nextel Open and earn his way into the Nextel All-Star Challenge.

Denny Hamlin's one trip to Victory Lane in a Cup car was at an exhibition event. Credit: Autostock

ALL-STAR COVERAGE •   Nextel Open Lineup •   All-Star Challenge Lineup •   Vote in the Wildcard •   Complete Coverage Inside the Numbers Denny Hamlin's 2006 results Race Start Finish Status Daytona 17 30 running California 5 12 running Las Vegas 16 10 running Atlanta 7 31 running Bristol 33 14 running Martinsville 41 37 crash Texas 8 4 running Phoenix 6 34 running Talladega 30 22 running Richmond 7 2 running Darlington 5 10 running

The reasons for this are many.

Hamlin will start second to polesitter Scott Riggs, which gives him a shot at the lead from the green flag, and he's been pretty quick here in practice. But what cinched it was his answer when asked about his strategy for the sprint race.

"We don't know what our strategy is," the young Virginia driver said. "We don't know what kind of tires we're going to put on. We don't know what we're going to do. It seems like it's going to be a battle of track position, that's for sure."

That sets up a mad dash for the first turn when the green flag finally waves, and Hamlin will have all kinds of incentive to get there first.

"Track position is going to mean so much," he said. "Whoever gets out front will probably check out on the field."

Riggs addressed that after beating Hamlin for the pole by a hefty 0.007 seconds.

"Being on the pole, I feel pretty good about it," Riggs said of the race to Turn 1. "If I was on the outside pole or further back, I don't know how I would feel about it."

Head games are apparently played whether points are being awarded or not.

Judging by the last non-points event Hamlin participated in -- he won the Budweiser Shootout at Daytona in February -- there is no scare in the rookie driver. That plays a big part in his selection as the winner.

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Plus, he's been lights-out the past few weeks, running well at Darlington under the lights on another track where the surface is unpredictable at best and treacherous at worst.

While the Open is an all-or-nothing proposition, you still have to save something for the money run, and Hamlin has brought nearly all his cars back with all four wheels pointed the same way since he took over as driver of the No. 11 Chevrolet.

Riggs has to be a strong consideration as a possible contender to Hamlin, but when it comes down to picking one over the other, Hamlin gets the nod because he's never done this before.

That may seem a little cockeyed on the surface, but Hamlin had never run a Bud Shootout before, either, and he held off Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win that one.

Whatever else might play a role in the outcome of the Open, it probably won't be tires. The tires the Cup teams are running are so hard they don't even tear off the heat tips around the tread-wear indicators after several laps.

Ditto on the smaller 13.5-gallon fuel cells. Despite the lack of eight and a half gallons, it probably won't mean all that much in terms of fuel mileage, with 20 laps in the first segment and 10 in the second.

With the break, that will negate Riggs' advantage if he gets away first, and the race might come down to the start of the final 10-lap segment.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.