Head2Head: Will Gordon overtake Pearson in wins?

By NASCAR.COM
October 17, 2007
03:36 PM EDT

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This week's hot-button topic goes to the top of the list -- almost. David Pearson sits No. 2 on NASCAR's all-time victories list with 105. Jeff Gordon, with his most recent victory at Lowe's Motor Speedway, now has 81 and ranks sixth on the list.

Gordon is just four victories from moving into third place on the list. But it will take him 24 wins to reach Pearson. Will Gordon overtake Pearson for No. 2 on the all-time wins list?

Read both sides of the argument, then weigh in with your take.

Will Jeff Gordon overtake David Pearson for No. 2 on the all-time wins list?


YES	NO
It's not a matter of if Jeff Gordon will replace David Pearson in the No. 2 spot on NASCAR's all-time victory list as much it is a matter of when. Having chalked up his 81st victory Saturday night at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Gordon is now sixth on the career wins list. He's two wins behind Cale Yarborough, three behind Darrell Waltrip and either three or four behind Bobby Allison, depending on how you view Allison's disputed 1971 win while driving a Grand American car at Winston-Salem. Barring a catastrophe, Gordon is likely to reach 100 victories, even if he decides to hang up his helmet well before his infant daughter graduates from high school. Gordon needs 24 wins to tie Pearson's mark of 105 victories, 25 to pass him. Over 15 full-time seasons, Gordon is averaging 5.4 wins a year. So if Gordon's victory pace remains constant, we could see a new No. 2 by 2011 -- perhaps before Gordon turns 40 on Aug. 4. If Gordon were to drive another 10 seasons and win four races a season -- something he's accomplished nine times already in the his career -- he would finish with more than 120 wins, eclipsing everyone but Richard Petty. Even in a worst-case scenario, Gordon should easily reach 105 victories. Before 2007, Gordon won just 17 races over a five-year "mini-slump." But at that reduced pace, it would take Gordon only seven more years to reach that -- and if anything, Gordon has shown that his competitive fire still burns hotter than ever. To top it off, Gordon may just be reaching his peak productivity. Dale Earnhardt won 56 more races after he turned 36, while Yarborough added 55 to his victory total. In fact, each of the other seven drivers occupying the top eight spots on the all-time victory list won at least 30 more races after 36. To win consistently in NASCAR's premier series, you have to have the tools, the team and the talent. Hendrick Motorsports has a track record of being one of the top outfits in the business -- and that shows no signs of abating anytime soon. So there's nothing in the foreseeable future that should slow Gordon's inevitable overtaking of all but one of the drivers on NASCAR's all-time win list. • Mark Aumann, NASCAR.COM	While it's comfortable to believe everything modern is better than what used to be, fact is there are many remnants of the good ol' days that will endure -- including David Pearson's 105 victories ranking second to Richard Petty's all-time record of 200. Is Jeff Gordon better than Petty, or Pearson, or even Dale Earnhardt? Who knows; time marches on and so did these drivers' careers. Numbers, however, are what we're left to debate. And in the case of Gordon vs. Pearson, the Silver Fox can rest assured his place in history is safe. Gordon will not eclipse 100 wins, much less reach 106. Bottom line: Today's competition is so tightly bunched that reeling off 10 wins in a season is a thing of the past. No driver has reached double digits since Gordon (13) in 1998. In the past eight years, the season's winningest driver has averaged 6.5 victories. Gordon has averaged 5.4 wins in 15 full seasons, including six this year. At that rate, he would have to race for five more years -- and average five-plus wins each season -- to catch Pearson. Ain't gonna happen. Gordon has celebrated in Victory Lane as many times this year as the past two seasons combined. He has reached five wins only four times since 1999. The numbers just don't -- and won't -- add up. Several factors weigh against Gordon eclipsing Pearson's win total, not the least of which is the grind of the 36-race season. Gordon is 36 years old and now a proud papa. He's loaded, and presumably has invested his money wisely. Why should he continue to ride the ragged edge for another five, six, seven years? Another speed bump is the Car of Tomorrow, which has been engineered to level the playing field. Hendrick Motorsports will spend as necessary to stay ahead of the curve, but there are hotshoes coming through the ranks with the same go-get-'em drive that Gordon displayed in the early 1990s. Gordon's place among the greats is assured. But the more things change, the more they stay the same -- and that includes the top two on the all-time wins list. • Duane Cross, NASCAR.COM

YES

It's not a matter of if Jeff Gordon will replace David Pearson in the No. 2 spot on NASCAR's all-time victory list as much it is a matter of when.

Having chalked up his 81st victory Saturday night at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Gordon is now sixth on the career wins list. He's two wins behind Cale Yarborough, three behind Darrell Waltrip and either three or four behind Bobby Allison, depending on how you view Allison's disputed 1971 win while driving a Grand American car at Winston-Salem.

Barring a catastrophe, Gordon is likely to reach 100 victories, even if he decides to hang up his helmet well before his infant daughter graduates from high school.

Gordon needs 24 wins to tie Pearson's mark of 105 victories, 25 to pass him. Over 15 full-time seasons, Gordon is averaging 5.4 wins a year. So if Gordon's victory pace remains constant, we could see a new No. 2 by 2011 -- perhaps before Gordon turns 40 on Aug. 4.

If Gordon were to drive another 10 seasons and win four races a season -- something he's accomplished nine times already in the his career -- he would finish with more than 120 wins, eclipsing everyone but Richard Petty.

Even in a worst-case scenario, Gordon should easily reach 105 victories. Before 2007, Gordon won just 17 races over a five-year "mini-slump." But at that reduced pace, it would take Gordon only seven more years to reach that -- and if anything, Gordon has shown that his competitive fire still burns hotter than ever.

To top it off, Gordon may just be reaching his peak productivity. Dale Earnhardt won 56 more races after he turned 36, while Yarborough added 55 to his victory total. In fact, each of the other seven drivers occupying the top eight spots on the all-time victory list won at least 30 more races after 36.

To win consistently in NASCAR's premier series, you have to have the tools, the team and the talent. Hendrick Motorsports has a track record of being one of the top outfits in the business -- and that shows no signs of abating anytime soon. So there's nothing in the foreseeable future that should slow Gordon's inevitable overtaking of all but one of the drivers on NASCAR's all-time win list.

• Mark Aumann, NASCAR.COM

While it's comfortable to believe everything modern is better than what used to be, fact is there are many remnants of the good ol' days that will endure -- including David Pearson's 105 victories ranking second to Richard Petty's all-time record of 200.

Is Jeff Gordon better than Petty, or Pearson, or even Dale Earnhardt? Who knows; time marches on and so did these drivers' careers.

Numbers, however, are what we're left to debate. And in the case of Gordon vs. Pearson, the Silver Fox can rest assured his place in history is safe. Gordon will not eclipse 100 wins, much less reach 106.

Bottom line: Today's competition is so tightly bunched that reeling off 10 wins in a season is a thing of the past. No driver has reached double digits since Gordon (13) in 1998. In the past eight years, the season's winningest driver has averaged 6.5 victories.

Gordon has averaged 5.4 wins in 15 full seasons, including six this year. At that rate, he would have to race for five more years -- and average five-plus wins each season -- to catch Pearson.

Ain't gonna happen. Gordon has celebrated in Victory Lane as many times this year as the past two seasons combined. He has reached five wins only four times since 1999. The numbers just don't -- and won't -- add up.

Several factors weigh against Gordon eclipsing Pearson's win total, not the least of which is the grind of the 36-race season. Gordon is 36 years old and now a proud papa. He's loaded, and presumably has invested his money wisely. Why should he continue to ride the ragged edge for another five, six, seven years?

Another speed bump is the Car of Tomorrow, which has been engineered to level the playing field. Hendrick Motorsports will spend as necessary to stay ahead of the curve, but there are hotshoes coming through the ranks with the same go-get-'em drive that Gordon displayed in the early 1990s.

Gordon's place among the greats is assured. But the more things change, the more they stay the same -- and that includes the top two on the all-time wins list.

• Duane Cross, NASCAR.COM