Track Smack: Surprises, Junior and two at Vegas

1. Michael Waltrip is seventh, Juan Montoya is 10th, Elliott Sadler is 11th and David Reutimann is 12th. Of those drivers, who has the best chance of hanging in Chase position the longest?

David Caraviello: Montoya, no question. The guy's always had a tremendous amount of talent, he's great on road courses, and very good on big, fast ovals. That Earnhardt horsepower may be the difference he needs to take the next step.

Joe Menzer: It's hard to disagree with DC2 on Montoya, but I think you might be able to make the case for David Reutimann. I think he's poised to make a quantum leap forward this season.

Dave Rodman: The interesting thing is, every one of those guys should stay there. They're Sprint Cup drivers, for goodness sake. But, having said that, David Reutimann is coming. It started at the end of last season with the pole at Homestead. This is the fruition of a lot of hard work for that boy.

Joe Menzer: What? Are you out of your mind, Roadman? You really think Michael Waltrip can stay there -- in seventh? He's the one most likely to drop like a rock, and fast. Plus, I think we all knew that the Richard Petty Motorsports success at Daytona, while fun and exciting, was an anomaly. Even folks on some of those teams wondered openly if they would struggle once they got to the "regular" tracks.

David Caraviello: Roadman, what have you been spiking your coffee with this morning? Maybe one of those guys hangs in there. Given that guys like Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are outside the top 12, most of these dudes are on borrowed time.

Dave Rodman: Here's my take on that. Reuttie has been the spear point, but Michael Waltrip Racing has been on the upswing. When Michael was with, I can't remember if it was Tony Eury Jr. or Tony Gibson at DEI, he was making it happen on a weekly basis. You don't remember Phoenix? And a lot of other places. They are due, as in "long-suffering overdue."

Joe Menzer: But what about Clint Bowyer's candid assessment of Michael as a driver at Bristol last year?

David Caraviello: Oh, don't mention that around Michael. It still irks him.

Dave Rodman: Heat of the moment. You should know, Josephus, that that doesn't count. You think Shane Hmiel would have given Dale Jarrett the finger at Bristol if he had five minutes to think about it? Maybe he would have hung a glove over his in-car camera first -- but the kid's not a thug. He wouldn't have done it.

Joe Menzer: Well, here are some hard-core facts to consider: Michael hasn't won a race since 2003. For Sadler, it's been since 2004. At least with Montoya and Reutimann -- or "Reuttie," as "Roadie" so affectionately calls him -- you are talking about guys who should be on the upswing in their careers.

David Caraviello: Hey, no question the Waltrip cars are better. Looks like they're finally turning the corner over there. But let's see where they are at Martinsville. It's a very long way from where they were last year to the Chase.

Joe Menzer: One thing you have to say about Michael is that as a car owner, the product he is putting on the track on a weekly basis obviously has gotten better. And he is motivated. He said if he doesn't drive better this year, it will be time to get out.

David Caraviello: Plus, a lot of these guys are still living off their Daytona finishes. I remember a few years ago at this time, guys like David Stremme and J.J. Yeley were in Chase position. It's much too early to start getting excited about this stuff. Things will change.

Dave Rodman: Our eminent colleague, Mr. Reid Spencer, had an apt piece that we posted on NASCAR.COM. I had said post-Vegas was the time to look at the top 35. That could be wrong. Tendencies start early in a season, and for some of these guys, 2009 is gonna be a potential rude-awakening.

David Caraviello: But we're not talking about top 35 here. We're talking about Chase position. Big difference. Here's why I like Montoya to hang around. The guy's finished in the top 20 in points before, and clearly that Ganassi operation was missing something on its own. I always wondered if Juan would have been better off somewhere else. Now he has the benefit of those great ECR engines. And plus, Juan is much better than people give him credit for on intermediate tracks, which are the bread and butter of the Sprint Cup tour.

Dave Rodman: I think Montoya's 2008 was an anomaly. Like I said, Reutimann is coming on. But guys like Bowyer, Johnson and Kyle Busch -- not to mention Kurt -- are like Terriers looking for bones. As nice as they are, this is the Chase, and some blood is gonna be spilt.

Joe Menzer: If one of those aforementioned gentlemen is in the Chase when all is said and done, I say that will be a pretty huge upset. But if I had to bet, I would bet on Montoya. I think Reutimann may make a run at it but be in sort of the same position David Ragan was when all was said and done last year. Close but no cigar.

David Caraviello: I could see that, Joe. But that would still be a huge accomplishment for Reutimann.

Joe Menzer: Or Reuttie, as we call him here! Wasn't there a Reuttie who once played football at Notre Dame and had a inspirational movie made about him?

Dave Rodman: Uh, that was Rudy, I believe ...

Also
• Hamlin, Johnson chasing top 12 entering Las Vegas
• Top teams need to heed early season warning signs (Continued)