Johnson in cruise control, but Talladega looms large

Sunday will be like a one-day sale for Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon -- if they miss the opportunity to cash in on any potential misfortune for the 48 team, their chance to gain ground in the standings will be gone for good.

Before every race, Johnson reminds his team to "put their blinders on." They are focused on the big prize and in control of their own destiny. Talladega is the track where a driver has little to no say in his fate.

The Amp Energy 500 is the final frontier between Johnson and history. When the haulers leave Alabama, it will be wider and greener pastures. Once this thoroughbred gets free, there will be no catching him.

Johnson has been stellar at the two tracks following Talladega. He's finished first or second in three of the past four Texas races and won three of the past four at Phoenix. Beyond that, Homestead will be all but irrelevant -- much like it was in 2008.

Most drivers usually dread Talladega, but some now look forward to it. They realize that it is their best chance to make up points (the most they can gain is 161, less than nine Chase drivers' deficit). Even if they succeed, it will be their last.

On pace to post his best Chase average finish (currently 3.0), Johnson is staking his claim as NASCAR's best closer. Unless he opens the door at Talladega, the window of opportunity for the Chase field will have been slammed shut.

I will admit that if anything is to go wrong for Jimmie Johnson in these last four races of the season, Talladega is the most logical place for that to happen.

Only one thing is for certain at otherwise unpredictable 'Dega: many drivers will wind up in a crash where their only fault was being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Remember that first race at Talladega this year?

If Johnson leaves Talladega unscathed, it's unlikely that man will be able to beat him. Machine, however, is another issue. Johnson has hinted as such even as everyone prematurely anoints him champion -- again.

So many things can go wrong with a race car. Depending on severity and timing, it can be damning. Just ask Jeff Burton, who in 2006 went to Martinsville as the points leader. Johnson started that race seventh in the Chase, 146 points out.

Burton blew an engine and finished 42nd. Johnson led the most laps and won the race. When that race was over, Johnson was third in the standings, seven points ahead of fifth place Burton. That's a swing of 153 points. Johnson, of course, went on to win the first of his three consecutive titles.

Granted, it probably will take something as dramatic for Johnson to lose grasp of his commanding lead. But it can happen. It can happen at Texas, it can happen at Phoenix, it can happen at Homestead.

Have I convinced you? If so, now convince me.