Chasers have a lot on their plates as Talladega calls

Talladega. It's not a fun word when you are trying to win a championship. The sheer unpredictability is what makes this place such a nightmare. The wrecks can happen anywhere and at any time. I've seen drivers leading the race get taken out, wrecks in the middle of the pack and guys "hanging out at the back of the pack to avoid the big one" get wrapped up smack dab in the middle of it. All you have to do is look at the top Chasers and their Talladega results to tell the story. Rarely does one driver put together a string of top ten finishes at Talladega, no matter how well they run in plate races.

Much will be made this weekend of the new smaller plates that are mandated for Sunday's race after Carl Edwards' last lap, near dance with the audience in the Talladega race earlier this year. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. told me he flat out doesn't like this decision by NASCAR. In fact, it's hard to find a driver who really does like it. "Obviously we are going to be in one big pack, what good does that do?," Junior asked. The packs will be precariously tight on Sunday but that is not the real issue according to Greg Biffle. He thinks the problem will be bump drafting. "NASCAR has to find a way to monitor it. That is what is causing the wrecks, we're hitting each other in the turns and it just doesn't work," Biffle said. He's right and he made the further point that with the smaller plates, drivers will be looking for any tiny advantage they can get so we're likely to see more bump drafting than ever. Smaller plates, tighter packs and more bump drafting means larger and more frequent wrecks. The more drivers I talk to this week, the more drivers I hear who just are not looking forward to Sunday's race.

Despite some driver opinions, every race fan should be excited. This was made for them. The product you will see on TV, or in person, will no doubt be breath-taking.

TIER 1

Johnson

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
This is the one Chase race that makes even Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus take pause. After all, Talladega is the site of their only DNF to this point in 2009, so trust me; they know what this place can do to you. Johnson is also "Exhibit A" to prove just how unpredictable Talladega can be. In Johnson's last 10 'Dega races he has just four top ten finishes. Johnson falls in line with most everybody else here - he has his good days (one win) and his bad days (six DNF's and five finishes of 30th or worse). All of those points will be made over and over again this weekend, including promises of a new Chase starting next week at Texas if Johnson finishes poorly on Sunday, but let's make one thing very clear -- even if Johnson has a DNF this weekend, the championship landscape is not likely to change all that much with just this one race. It could certainly start some bad mojo for any of the Chase teams but will Mark Martin suddenly be within 50 points heading into Texas? Not likely.

For argument's sake - let's take for example this spring's race at Talladega - and suppose that is where the top five chasers finish this Sunday, then let's see where the points fall into place from there. The best finish among the top five chasers at Talladega in the spring was 20th and was recorded by Juan Pablo Montoya. Below is a chart of the top five chasers with the points they have now, the points they earned at Talladega in the spring and what the points would look like if the same were to happen this time around.

My wife just told me I have officially gone over the edge with research but you can tell, that it will take an exceptionally bad day for Jimmie Johnson and an exceptionally good day for everybody else at Talladega on Sunday to close the gap in the championship standings.

Martin

Mark Martin (No Change)
I have been covering Mark Martin for over 15 years and I have never, never heard him say he is looking forward to a restrictor plate race...until last week. For the first time ever, Martin says that he is excited about the possibilities of this week's race at Talladega. "The odds have to be in my favor by now, I've wrecked so many times at these plate races," said Martin.

Remember when I mentioned about people riding around in the back to avoid the big one only to get caught up in it anyway? One year at Talladega that was Mark Martin and I'll never forget what he said to me off-air when he came out of the infield care center that day..."even when you plan not to wreck here, you still wreck."

Martin has certainly had his share of misfortune at these plate races but at least the normally glass half-empty Martin is looking at the race this weekend with a positive attitude.

And why not?

Even though Martin is the closest of the chasers to Jimmie Johnson, he still has 118 points to make up. Kind of sad to admit that the number two chaser is in "nothing to lose mode" but if he's not in that mode, he could be very soon. (Continued)